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The Upcoming Elections in Argentina.


By Ricardo López Göttig

On 25 October are the general elections in Argentina. After twelve years of Kirchnerism, with Néstor Kirchner (2003-2007) and Cristina Fernández de Kichner (2007-2011 and 2011-2015), the upcoming elections are the opportunity for a change. Of the two main opposition candidates, Mauricio Macri -mayor of Buenos Aires- has better chances to compete in the ballottage against governor Daniel Scioli. The third presidential candidate, Sergio Massa, is also of peronist origins, but he quit the party in 2013 in order to run for a seat in Congress.
The main battlefield is the province of Buenos Aires, with 38% of total voters. Mr. Scioli is actually the governor, and after two terms in office, he is now running for president. But it's well known that governors of Buenos Aires never succeeded in presidential elections. Eduardo Duhalde, former governor of Buenos Aires, was elected president by the Congress in 2002, but not by popular vote.
Mr. Scioli needs 40% of popular vote and more than ten points of distance from the second candidate to avoid the ballottage in november, or achieve 45%. Nevertheless, it seems very difficult to obtain such a distance from Mauricio Macri.
In the province of Buenos Aires, the two main contenders are Mrs. María Eugenia Vidal, the candidate of Macri, and Mr. Aníbal Fernández, the Chief of Cabinet of president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. In the primaries, that are compulsory for all citizens, Mrs. Vidal was the most voted candidate, with more than two million ballots in her favour.
Hence, Mrs. María Eugenia Vidal is now the best electoral weapon for Mauricio Macri and his opposition front. If she can beat Mr. Fernández -accused of being connected with drug-trafficking-, it will be the knockout for the chances of governor Scioli in the ballottage.
Could Mrs. Vidal win in October? According to the polls, she is slightly ahead.
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